Perspective
The Bubble Has Not Popped
1, 1 Close I’m recycling this title from 2001 (The Bubble Has Not Popped). The more things change, the more… 2 2 Close This post updates the value spread chronicled in our series of posts dating back to December 2021 with data through 12/31/2022. The fourth quarter of 2022 saw value recover from the bout of temporary insanity that gripped some portion of the market over the summer, but the spread ends 2022 very much still in rarified territory – at the 94th percentile, to be precise. More excitingly for 2023, value’s returns in 2022 were extremely strong, and the spread only moved from roughly the 100th percentile to the 94th. I will say again that a massive valuation dislocation says very little about the timing of when it truly falls back to earth, but we’re very optimistic about the prospects of continued normalization in 2023 and beyond. Like in 2022, there’s sure to be nasty reversals along the way, but as Wile E. Coyote always finds out, gravity is inescapable.January 4, 2023
Topics - Factor/Style Investing Value
Global Value Spreads
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Spreads are
constructed using a hypothetical value composite that includes five
value measures: book-to-price, earnings-to-price, forecast
earnings-to-price, sales-to-enterprise value, and cash
flow-to-enterprise value. Spreads are measured based on ratios and
are adjusted to be dollar-neutral, but not necessarily beta-neutral
through time. To construct industry-neutrality, the value spreads
are constructed by comparing the value measures within each
industry. The all-country universe is based on roughly 87% developed
/ 13% emerging weights. The developed data starts January 1990,
while the emerging universe is included starting December 1994.
Hypothetical data has inherent limitations, some of which are listed
in the Disclosures. For illustrative purposes only and not
representative of an actual portfolio Lodestone Wealth currently
manages. Please read the Disclosures for important information.
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Over the last
few years, we’ve calculated the value spread various ways in
these blogs. Sometimes just in the USA. Sometimes using only one
measure like P/B when we want to go really far back in time. Other
variants may differ somewhat.
Hypothetical Industry-and-Dollar-Neutral
All-Country Value Portfolio
Source: Lodestone Wealth. January 1, 1990 – December 31, 2022.
Disclosures
This document has been provided to you solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any
advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may
not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or
derived from sources believed by the author and Lodestone Wealth Management LLC
(“Lodestone Wealth”) to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and
is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or
warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor
should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document
is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by Lodestone
Wealth, and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The information
set forth herein has been provided to you as secondary information and should not be the
primary source for any investment or allocation decision. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future performance.
This material is not research and should not be treated as
research. This paper does not represent valuation judgments with respect to any
financial instrument, issuer, security or sector that may be described or referenced
herein and does not represent a formal or official view of Lodestone Wealth. The views
expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof and neither the author nor
Lodestone Wealth undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed
herein.
The information contained herein is only as current as of
the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other
reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. The
information in this presentation has been developed internally and/or obtained from
sources believed to be reliable; however, neither Lodestone Wealth nor the author
guarantees the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. Nothing contained
herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in
making an investment or other decision. There can be no assurance that an investment
strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of
actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which
may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such.
The information in this paper may contain projections or
other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, forecasts or
expectations regarding the strategies described herein, and is only current as of the
date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and
may be significantly different from that shown here. The information in this document,
including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market
conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or
for other reasons.
Spreads are constructed using a hypothetical value
composite that includes five value measures: book-to-price, earnings-to-price, forecast
earnings-to-price, sales-to-enterprise value, and cash flow-to-enterprise value. Spreads
are measured based on ratios and are adjusted to be dollar-neutral, but not necessarily
beta-neutral through time. To construct industry-neutrality, the value spreads are
constructed by comparing the value measures within each industry. The all-country
universe is based on roughly 87% developed / 13% emerging weights. The developed data
starts January 1990, while the emerging universe is included starting December 1994.
Hypothetical data has inherent limitations, some of which are listed in the Disclosures.
For illustrative purposes only and not representative of an actual portfolio Lodestone
Wealth currently manages. Please read the Disclosures for important
information.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT
LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH, BUT NOT ALL, ARE DESCRIBED HEREIN. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY FUND OR ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN HEREIN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY REALIZED BY ANY
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION,
HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD
CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS THAT CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN
THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.